Cautious Optimism Defines Global Carbon Market Outlook in 2025, IETA and PwC Release Latest GHG Market Sentiment Survey

The survey captures perspectives from 143 IETA member representatives active across compliance and voluntary carbon markets worldwide. The findings highlight an evolving landscape marked by resilient optimism, rising integrity standards, and heightened expectations for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement as a driver of future climate action.

“Cautious optimism is the prevailing mood across carbon markets this year,” said Andrea Bonzanni, International Policy Director at IETA. “As governments expand emissions trading systems and operationalise Article 6, we’re seeing continued belief in the power of market mechanisms, but also a call for greater clarity, capacity, and coordination to unlock their full potential.”

Key findings

• Confidence in Article 6 surges: 91% of respondents view Article 6 as a key driver of future climate action, a sharp rise from 45% in 2023.
• ETS expansion steady but uncertain: Respondents support continued growth and linkage of national ETS, though confidence in integration timelines has weakened.
• Integrity and trust reshape the voluntary carbon market (VCM): Stronger governance, quality standards, and alignment with compliance markets are seen as essential to rebuild confidence and credibility.
• CBAM sentiment mixed: While the EU CBAM is viewed as a necessary safeguard against carbon leakage, uncertainties persist over implementation timelines and global adoption.
• Price outlook moderated: Respondents anticipate gradual price increases to 2030 driven by high-integrity credits, but few expect prices to reach the levels required to meet the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets.
• Carbon price projections: Respondents expect average carbon prices to continue rising across all major emissions trading systems (ETS) through 2030. For the voluntary market, 70% expect prices to rise by 2030, led by high-integrity and Article 6-aligned credits. 

“This year’s survey underscores that integrity and implementation are the watchwords of 2025,” said Sushmita Seelam, Carbon Markets Lead & Senior Manager at PwC. “Markets are maturing, and while near-term volatility persists, the long-term direction of travel, toward credible, connected, and higher-quality carbon pricing, remains clear.”

A market in transition

• The survey shows that 2024 and 2025 were years of significant recalibration across global carbon markets:
• ETS schemes in the EU, UK, and China, and South Korea expanded coverage to new sectors, while emerging markets such as Vietnam and Chile advanced toward implementation.
• Voluntary carbon markets entered a phase of transformation toward higher quality, with the ICVCM’s Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) starting to have a positive impact on the market.
• Confidence in the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) and bilateral Article 6.2 trades grew, with countries such as Switzerland, Ghana, and Guyana leading the way in operationalising bilateral and unilateral ITMO authorisations.

About the survey

The GHG Market Sentiment Survey has been conducted annually by IETA and PwC since 2006. This year’s edition shifted from a regional to a topic-led structure, focusing on six core themes shaping carbon markets today: ETS, CBAM, CORSIA, Article 6, the Voluntary Carbon Market, and Price Projections. Responses were collected between 5 September and 7 October 2025 from IETA members worldwide. 

The full report is available for download here.