Today [30 October 2026], IETA publishes Working Paper IV, ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ค๐ง๐ฉ๐ช๐ฃ๐๐ฉ๐๐๐จ ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐พ๐๐๐ก๐ก๐๐ฃ๐๐๐จ ๐๐ค๐ง ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฟ+/๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฟ+ ๐ผ๐ช๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ง๐๐จ๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ ๐๐ฃ ๐ฝ๐ง๐๐ฏ๐๐ก, a contribution to the debate on ITMOs and the SBCE in the run-up to COP31.
A robust framework must manage two risks: authorising too much and compromising the NDC, or authorising too late and missing time-bound demand windows, such as CORSIA Phase 2 (2027โ2029).
The paper examines:
โ the interaction with the ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ถ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ด๐ฎ๐น ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ๐ for 2030 and with the NDC
โ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ป๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฐ๐ across project, jurisdictional programme and federal government
โ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐น ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ธ๐, safeguards and free, prior and informed consultation
โ the complementary role of ๐ฑ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ฆ๐๐๐
โ a proposal: the ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐๐๐ต๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ, capped, time-bound and subject to periodic review
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